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The UFC 330 main event will see welterweight champion Islam Makhachev face Ian Machado Garry. The bout will mark Makhachev’s first title defense at 170 pounds after moving up from lightweight and defeating Jack Della Maddalena.
Makhachev enters the fight with an impressive 28-1 professional MMA record and a 17-1 record in the UFC. He stands 5-foot-7 with a 72-inch reach and has a deep background in sambo, along with 13 submission victories.
Machado Garry holds a 17-1 MMA record and is 10-1 in the UFC. His biggest physical advantage is his height – he stands at 6-foot-3, giving him a six-inch height advantage over Makhachev, while their reaches are almost identical at 71 inches for the Irishman.
The Striking Game
Makhachev continues to develop his striking and is now much more than a fighter who relies primarily on sambo and wrestling. He prefers to work from a southpaw stance, using a variety of strikes, kicks and level changes to keep his opponents guessing.
The Russian has a dangerous right hook, which he uses both in combinations and as a counter. At the same time, he frequently looks for opportunities to close the distance and get his opponent into the clinch, where he holds one of his biggest advantages.
Machado Garry is an orthodox fighter with a strong boxing foundation and extensive experience dating back to his early years. He relies on accurate straight punches, movement and an excellent sense of distance. He also does a good job combining his punches with kicks and attacking different levels.
Garry’s size and movement could create serious problems for Makhachev, particularly if the challenger can maintain long range and force the champion to enter his striking range.
Wrestling Will Be the Key
If Makhachev manages to impose his wrestling, the fight could take on a completely different character.
The champion is extremely effective with his chain wrestling and often combines single-leg attempts with clinch work, trips, throws and pressure against the fence. This is where his skill set could neutralize Garry’s physical advantages.
The challenger, however, is not without weapons in this area. Machado Garry holds a black belt in judo and has significantly improved his grappling in recent years. He has trained with fighters such as Charles Oliveira and Demian Maia and has gradually developed more reliable takedown defense.
One of the most interesting questions will be whether Garry can use his height and strong base to stop Makhachev’s takedown attempts. If the champion does manage to take him down, Garry’s ability to get back to his feet will be put to a serious test.
Makhachev is also extremely dangerous when controlling his opponent’s wrists and arms, allowing him to gradually restrict their movement and work toward more dominant positions.
Size vs. Experience
Garry’s size could be one of the factors that makes this fight more competitive than it initially appears.
Makhachev has not faced a huge number of opponents with Garry’s combination of height and style. Garry is not simply tall – he knows how to use his range, movement and straight punches, which could force the champion to adjust his usual approach.
At the same time, Makhachev has a significant advantage in championship experience and has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to adapt as a fight progresses.
Prediction
Makhachev is the favorite, and logic suggests that if he can take the fight into the clinch and onto the ground, he will have a significant advantage.
However, Garry’s combination of size, range, movement and improvements in the clinch could create enough problems to make things difficult for the champion.
Prediction: Ian Machado Garry by unanimous decision.
